Laboratory of Influenza and ARI Epidemiology

Laboratory Lead — Lyudmila S. Karpova, Dr.Med.Sci.

Phone: +7 (812) 234–91–05

E-mail: epidlab@influenza.spb.ru









Created in 1970, the laboratory is one of the core parts of RII Federal and National Influenza Centres. From 1994 till 2010 the laboratory was headed by I.G.Marinich, Dr.Med.Sci., who made an important contribution into development of influenza and ARI surveillance in Russia, studies of epidemic patterns and epidemic prediction. The Laboratory played key role in integrating scientifically–based influenza and ARI surveillance system into the Russian healthcare.

Primary Activities:

  • Constant development of epidemiologic surveillance for timely epidemic detection
  • Studies of influenza and ARI epidemic patterns in Russia and worldwide for producing accurate predictions and effective prevention methods

Notable Achievements:

The laboratory within the RII FIC has accumulated a massive database of influenza and ARI morbidity in Russia. The database contains weekly morbidity data from 1986 up to the present day represented in 18 parameters. It includes total number of influenza and ARI cases recorded, number of lethal cases and hospitalizations, split by age: 0–2, 3–6, 7–14, 15 and older. Since 2009 “15–64” and “64+” age groups were added.

Scientists developed an effective technique of epidemiologic analysis, which is based on calculated epidemic thresholds and weekly reference levels of non–epidemic urban influenza and ARI morbidity for every month of the year (2006). In 2009 the thresholds were adjusted according to morbidity data collected in 2004–2008. In 2010, epidemic thresholds for various age groups of the 67 federal subjects of Russia were calculated and integrated into the federal healthcare.

A decrease in epidemic intensity during the last 22 years (up to 2009) in Russia is attributed to simultaneous circulation of two influenza A subtypes, prolonged interaction of these subtypes with the local population and the resulting formation of immunity in most of the population. Another contributing factor is a negative demographic situation which led to decrease in the number of children in the population and increase in the number of age groups with high immunity.

Russia joined WHO Regional Office for Europe to be able to share and compare virological surveillance data with the members of European Union and several Asian states, which submit their data to EuroWHO. Adaptation of Russian influenza surveillance system to the European Influenza Surveillance Scheme was conducted by laboratory specialists to ensure data compatibility. The data shows morbidity figures in 7 federal regions and total figures for the country. Since September 2010, a baseline of 626 influenza cases per 100K population for Russia was introduced into EISS. The baseline was calculated using the surveillance data of 55 cities collected through 2004–2009. Currently, EISS stores surveillance information for Russia from the year 2004 onwards.

Studies of the influence of air pollution with 5 primary atmospheric pollutants(data provided by Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory) on the annual influenza and ARI morbidity during the period 1986–2004 in 34 cities of Russia in age groups 0–2, 3–6, 7–14, 15 and older were conducted. Regressive correlation with air pollution index(API) was established for 20 cities and straight correlation for 15 cities. When API increased by 5 points, the expected influenza and ARI morbidity rose significantly for children aged 0–2 (from 8% in Volgograd up to 40% in Yakutsk). For other age groups morbidity rose 1–2%. The investigations are continuing.

Quantitative evaluation of the influence of contemporary influenza pandemics of varying etiology on the adult mortality from somatic diseases, acute and repeated myocardial infarction, post–infarct and aterosclerotic cardiosclerosis, non–hospital acquired pneumonia during 1993–2004, was carried out.

On behalf of the Ministry of Health, laboratory team developed “Influenza Prevention” sanitary and epidemiological guidelines that were integrated into practice (2005).

Selected Publications:

  • L.S. Karpova, I.G.Marinich. Features of Influenza Epidemics in Russia in 1986–2009. Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention. 2010;55(6):6–12 In Russian
  • M.Y. Pelikh, L.S. Karpova, I.G. Marinich. Expansion A/California/07/2009 influenza (H1N1) in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention. 2010;53(4):18–24 In Russian
  • L.S. Karpova, I.G. Marinich, T.P. Stolyarova, N.M. Popovtseva. Analysis of A(H1N1)/California/07/2009 Influenza Epidemic in Russia on Season 2009–2010. Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention. 2010;52(3):23–30 In Russian
  • Research Institute of Influenza (O.I. Kiselev, I.G. Marinich, L.S. Karpova), Rospotrebnadzor (E.B. Ezhlova, G.F. Lazikova, A.A. Vatolina). Guidelines for Calculating Influenza and ARI Epidemic Thresholds for Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation. Approved by the Head of Rospotrebnadzor G.G. Oniscshenko July 23, 2010
  • E.A. Smorodintseva. Influenza Epidemics Impact on Adult Mortality Due to Somatic Diseases in Saint Petersburg. 2009. Dissertation abstract. 18p
  • L.S. Karpova, I.G. Marinich, K.A. Stolyarov. Further Improvement of Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance in Russia in the framework of the Federal Influenza and ARI Centre. Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention. 2008;43(6):23–29 In Russian
  • M. Madjid, Ch.C. Miller, W. Cassells, V.V. Zarubaev, I.G. Marinich, O.I. Kiselev, Y.V. Lobzin, A.E. Filippov. Influenza Epidemics and Acute Respiratory Disease Activity are Associated with a Rise in Autopsy-Confirmed Death Due to Coronary Heart Disease: Results from Eight Years of Autopsies in About 35,000 Subjects. Article European Heart Journal 2007;28(10):1205-1210
  • O.I. Kiselev, A.A. Sominina, M.Yu. Yeropkin, I.G. Marinich, M.P. Grudinin, V.V. Zarubaev, M.M. Pis-areva, T.M.Gudkova, N.I.Konovalova, T.G. Lobova, P.B. Antimov, L.S.Karpova, E.B.Liberman, I.E.Korenyako. Influenza Monitoring in Russia. Seasons 2004–2005, 2005–2006, 2006–2007, 2007–2008, 2008–2009. Annual Report, WHO National Influenza Centre of Russia (St. Petersburg)
  • L.S. Karpova, I.G. Marinich, V.A. Kondratiyev, D.F. Zhytenev, E.A. Smorodintseva. Guidelines for Rapid Analysis and Prediction of Influenza and ARI Epidemiologic Situation. Eds. O.I. Kiselev. 2006. Approved by by the Head of Rospotrebnadzor G.G. Oniscshenko November 25, 2005